Elections will be first since military seized power in 2021， but analysts say vote is far from a step toward democracy

M yanmar is preparing to go to the polls for the first time since its military seized power in a coup in 2021， but with its former leader behind bars， its most successful political party disbanded and roughly a third of the country either disputed or in rebel hands， few believe claims by its military rulers that its 28 December election will be free and fair.

This is not for the people， this is for themselves， says Pai， 25， who fled Myanmar after the military seized power. They [the ruling junta] are looking for a way out of the trap they are [in].

When polls open on Sunday， almost five years after the military seized control of the country ， the generals will be hoping the vote legitimises their grip on power C and allows them to repair their image of international pariahs.

The military has rejected criticism of the vote， saying the election was not being conducted through coercion and that it has public support.

The election is being conducted for the people of Myanmar， not for the international community， said the junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun. Whether the international community is satisfied or not， is irrelevant. Many western governments， and the United Nations， have dismissed the vote as a sham. However， the juntas most important ally， China ， which has helped the military claw back from the brink on the battlefield， is backing the election， which is being held in three phases. Commentators say that China views the vote as the countrys best path back to stability.

Analysis shows the conflict has only intensified over the past year. From 1 January to 28 November 2025， military air and drone strikes increased by about 30% compared with 2024， according to Acled ， which tracks conflicts around the world. Civic infrastructure such as schools and medical facilities have been hit in near-daily strikes. This month， dozens were killed in a military strike on a hospital in Rakhine state， which is mostly controlled by the Arakan Army， an opponent of the military.

Conscription-related abductions increased by 26% compared with 2024， with the military snatching people from the streets and their homes and forcing them to serve， in a desperate attempt to boost their dwindling ranks.

Young people who have the means to do so have fled military-controlled areas such as the former capital Yangon， fearing they could be forced to serve.

Sham elections

There is such intense paranoia among Myanmars ruling military that a new election protection law has been passed， under which any criticism of the election can lead to a minimum sentence of three years in prison， and even the death penalty. Since July more than 200 people have already been arrested， including for merely liking social media posts criticising the vote. In cities such as Yangon residents report the authorities going door-to-door instructing people to vote. People may have little choice but to obey， activists say.

Everybody knows well how this military is ruthless and will continue to be very ruthless. Anyone whos seen as disapproving of the juntas sham election are at a very high risk， says Khin Ohmar， a pro-democracy activist who lives in exile， citing the use of repressive laws to arrest those who criticise the vote or the militarys rule.

There will be 57 parties on the ballot on Sunday， but the majority are perceived as being linked to or dependent on the military. Analysts say they create only the illusion of choice， but do not represent any true opposition to military rule. Only six parties are running at a nationwide level， including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development party， which has fielded the largest number of candidates and is effectively running uncontested in dozens of constituencies.

Aung San Suu Kyis party， the National League for Democracy， which won a landslide victory in the 2020 election ， was dissolved after it refused to comply with a demand to register with the junta-backed Union Election Commission. Dozens of ethnic parties were also dissolved. According to election monitoring group Anfrel， 57% of the parties that ran in the 2020 general election no longer exist， even though they received more than 70% of votes and 90% of seats.

Large strips of territory will be excluded from the elections， illustrating how much ground the junta has lost since the coup C even as it has regained momentum on the battlefield.

The military has said there will be no voting in 56 of 330 townships. Voting has also been cancelled in an additional 3，000 wards and village tracts， with analysts estimating about a third of the country will be excluded from the vote.

Many areas are in the midst of intense fighting， or under the control of opposition groups. The country has been locked in a fierce conflict since the 2021 coup， when the military imprisoned then de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and opened fire on protesters calling for the return of democracy.

Communities took up arms and formed peoples defence forces to fight against military atrocities， while older， ethnic armed groups that have long fought for independence also launched attacks， leaving the military desperately overstretched. Despite relentless airstrikes and violence that UN experts have described as likely war crimes， the junta lost vast areas of territory along its borders . Some began to speculate the military could even be overthrown.

Support from Beijing has allowed the generals to fight back. China， which feared even greater instability were the junta to collapse， cut off cross-border supplies to some of the militarys most formidable enemies in northern Shan state. Two of these powerful ethnic armed groups， the TNLA and MNDAA， handed territory back.

The military， freed up to fight elsewhere， has also adapted its tactics， enforcing mandatory conscription， making better use of drones and reforming its chain of command to allow it to deploy airstrikes more quickly.

In the run-up to the election， it has intensified its bombardments， seeking to cement its power in areas where it plans to hold voting. That is unlikely to ease after the vote， said Richard Horsey， senior Myanmar adviser at the Crisis Group.

The military may seek to agree to ceasefires with some groups after the election， he said， but any such deals will be tactical in nature， to give the military respite in certain areas so that it can target its force elsewhere.

They are determined to continue pressing their advantage and clawing back as much of the territory that theyve lost since the coup as possible， said Horsey. This isnt about a new civilian government shifting to a more soft approach.

这是自2021年军方夺取政权以来的初度选举，但分析东谈主士称这次投票远非迈向民主的一步

自2021年军方政变夺权以来，缅甸行将迎来初度大选。但是，前携带东谈主锒铛入狱，最到手的政党被动断绝，约三分之一国土处于争议或叛乱势力放弃之下。关于军政府声称12月28日的选举将“解放公谈”的说法，鲜有东谈主敬佩。

“这不是为了东谈主民，而是为了他们我方，”25岁的佩说谈，他在缅甸军方夺取政权后逃离了该国。“（军政府）正在寻找开脱面前逆境的前途。”

周日投票运行之际，距离军方接管国度政权已近五年。将领们但愿这次选举能使其权利掌控正当化，并改善他们算作国际弃儿的形象。

军方驳斥了对这次投票的品评，称选举并非通过挟制进行，且获取了公众辅助。

缅甸军政府发言东谈主佐敏吞默示：“这次选举是为缅甸东谈主民举行的，而非国际社会。国际社会惬意与否不足轻重。”好多西方国度政府及调和国均责怪这场投票是一场骗局。但是，军政府最强劲的盟友中国正辅助这场分三个阶段进行的选举——中国曾在战场上助缅军扭转劣势。挑剔东谈主士指出，中国将这次选举视为缅甸收复雄厚的最好阶梯。

分析泄漏，昔日一年打破赓续升级。凭据跟踪全球打破的机构ACLED数据，2025年1月1日至11月28日历间，军方空袭和无东谈主阴事紧较2024年增长约30%。学校、医疗机构等民用基础武艺确实逐日齐遭袭。本月，若开邦一家病院遭军方空袭致数十东谈主受难，该地区主要由军方反对派组织若开军放弃。

与2024年比拟，与征兵关联的敲诈事件增多了26%。军方在街头和民宅强行持壮丁，免强他们执戟，试图通过这种顶点技术补充日益减少的兵源。

由于归来可能被强征执戟，有才调离开的年青东谈主已从仰光等军控地区逃离。

不实选举

缅甸军政府的很是已严重到通过了一项新选举保护法，凭据该法，任何对选举的品评齐可能面对至少三年监禁，以致死刑。自7月以来，已有逾越200东谈主被捕，其中仅因点赞品评比举的酬酢媒体帖子就遭扣留。在仰光等城市，住户响应当局正逐户逐户强制条目寰球投票。步履东谈主士默示，寰球除了盲从确实别无遴荐。

流一火国外的亲民主步履东谈主士钦奥玛（Khin Ohmar）指出，军方利用弹压性法律逮捕品评比举或军事统治的东谈主士，并默示："家喻户晓，开云体育官方网站这支队列冷情冷凌弃，且将连接保持其狞恶人性。任何被视为反对军政府不实选举的东谈主齐将面对极高风险。"

周日选举的选票上将出现57个政党，但大多数被合计与军方存在关联或依赖军方。分析东谈主士指出，这些政党仅仅制造了遴荐的假象，并未真确反对军事统治。仅有六个政党在宇宙畛域内参选，其中包括军方辅助的联邦镇静与发展党。该党推出的候选东谈主数目最多，并在数十个选区践诺上无东谈主竞争。

昂山素季携带的宇宙民主定约在2020年大选中取得压倒性到手，但因拒却向军政府辅助的联邦选举委员会进行注册而被断绝。数十个少数民族政党也遭断绝。据选举监督机构安弗雷尔统计，尽管2020年大选中参选政党获取了逾越70%的选票和90%的议席，但其中57%的政党现已不复存在。

大片疆土将被排斥在选举以外，这标明自政变以来军政府已丧失广泛放弃区域——尽管其在战场上已重获上风。

军方默示，宇宙330个州里中有56个将不进行投票。此外，另有3000个选区和村组的投票也被取消。分析东谈主士估量，宇宙约三分之一的地区将被排斥在投票以外。

好多地区正处于浓烈交战中，或已被反对派武装放弃。自2021年军事政变以来，该国一直深陷浓烈打破——军方其时囚禁了践诺携带东谈主昂山素季，并向敕令收复民主的抗议者开火。

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当地寰球提生气器组建东谈主民自保军，以扞拒军方暴行；与此同期，长期争取寂静的少数民族武装组织也发起攻势，令军政府军力捉襟露肘。尽管军政府赓续发动空袭并彭胀被调和国众人认定为可能组成斗争罪的暴力行动，其仍丧失了边境沿线大片疆土。有东谈主运行推测，军政府以致可能被推翻。

北京方面的辅助使缅甸军方得以发起反击。由于归来军政府垮台会导致时事进一步荡漾，中国堵截了向缅北地区军方部分最强悍敌东谈主提供的跨境物质供应。其中两大民族场地武装组织——德昂民族解放军（TNLA）和缅甸民族民主同友军（MNDAA）已了债部分占领疆土。

队列在腾兴师力转战他处的同期，也调度了战术计谋：彭胀强制征兵轨制，更高效地期骗无东谈主机，并创新指示体系以竣事更快速的空袭部署。

选举前夜，该组织加强了轰炸行动，企图镇静其操办举行投票地区的放弃权。国际危险组织缅甸高档参谋人理查德·霍西默示，这种时事在投票收尾后也不太可能缓解。

他默示，军方可能会在选举后寻求与某些组织达成媾和公约，但此类公约骨子上齐是战术性的，方向是让军方在某些地区获取喘气之机，以便将军力勾搭到其他地区。

霍西默示：“他们决心连接利用本身上风，尽可能夺回政变以来失去的疆土。这并非新建树的文臣政府转向更随和技术的问题。”